PIRATE WIRES: Let the door knockers trade

We can admit that it makes perfect sense to prohibit Americans running for elected office from participating in prediction markets where they could wager for or against themselves. Three congressional candidates were recently banned from Kalshi, with U.S. Senate candidate Mark Moran of Virginia receiving the highest fine at $6,229.30, and maybe it should have been even higher. Candidates have a unique power to tank their own campaigns and profit in the process while shredding all public trust in the democratic process. But should campaign staffers also be blocked from trading on races where they’re already invested in blood, sweat and tears, for dismal pay and grueling hours? No. Let them trade.

An NPR report this week dug into the world of political campaign operatives investing for or against their campaigns, some making thousands on the election outcomes of their bosses. The framing is meant to feel corrupt—“insider trading” in the halls of democracy and on campaigns. But when it comes to elections, the public needs more information sources than campaign spin and biased polling.

Campaigns are bootstrapped operations built on true believers, and these people at the entry and mid-levels aren’t there chiefly for the money—they’re knocking doors, calling voters, vibe-checking rallies, and absorbing everything the campaign is actually experiencing on the ground.

No one is more invested, and few have a more honest read of the race. It makes little sense to quarantine that insight from the market and choose to live in more ignorance about the state of a race.

Rest assured, top-tier consultants and pollsters are raking in millions trading on election outcomes based on the polling and research they produce—as they should. But the campaign staffers with six roommates and living off Ramen who read the polling and sense the low energy at events...shouldn’t?

The problem with going after everything that resembles “insider trading” is that genuine knowledge-driven markets require insiders. Otherwise, you’re in a casino.

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